MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8be7922076828988c613a90cb885cf7aecacaa810e07930d28eb5abf148f4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 11,922$6,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,307.2 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 8,616$3,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,914.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 46c | 2,789$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.17 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 2,562$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Under | 54c | 2,051$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.56 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 3c | 1,125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 3c | 1,027$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,026$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 1,015$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.24 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 683.61$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.84 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 633.21$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.51 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 594.79$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.08 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 583.35$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…0175backed Under | 2c | 485.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 467.62$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.26 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 47c | 412$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 347.78$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 44c | 305.3$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 259.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.07 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.02 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 210.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 46c | 209$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 49c | 185.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 44c | 184.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 51c | 163.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 47c | 154.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 48c | 152.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 57c | 147.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 108.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 41c | 77.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Under | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 71c | 72.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 70.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 55c | 70.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 37c | 64.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 58.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…aad9backed Under | 43c | 56.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 37c | 52.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Over | 42c | 47.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Over | 58c | 45.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Under | 44c | 43.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 37c | 43.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…403dbacked Under | 45c | 43.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…9c13backed Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 44c | 42.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 33c | 42.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 64c | 41.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 55c | 38.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 55c | 35.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4a…4140backed Under | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 45c | 25.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati RedsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.