Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aomqu and friends vs yache123 (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9ad2eedc2388f1cf95a9e0b74a3dd67a5b0e1d64979cbf1128ab8e31eb5322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aomqu and friendsof Aomqu and friends, yache123
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed yache123 | 0c | 4,407$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Aomqu and friends | 42c | 919.49$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.83 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1c9fbacked Aomqu and friends | 64c | 894.17$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed yache123 | 63c | 692.64$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked yache123 | 2c | 614.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked yache123 | 44c | 480.17$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed yache123 | 40c | 399.96$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Aomqu and friends | 65c | 361$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aomqu and friends | 33c | 351.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.55 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Aomqu and friends | 38c | 266.31$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed yache123 | 9c | 207$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…224fbacked Aomqu and friends | 40c | 148.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed yache123 | 45c | 119.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed yache123 | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…fd2fbacked yache123 | 63c | 95.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed yache123 | 63c | 94.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed yache123 | 59c | 93.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed yache123 | 63c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed yache123 | 63c | 85.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…2585backed Aomqu and friends | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…f7c2backed yache123 | 22c | 52.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Aomqu and friends | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked yache123 | 62c | 45.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed yache123 | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked yache123 | 60c | 40.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Aomqu and friends | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aomqu and friends | 53c | 33.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked yache123 | 63c | 31.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…b6ecbacked Aomqu and friends | 73c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…3eb8backed yache123 | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd842…6484backed Aomqu and friends | 73c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed yache123 | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…a4e0backed Aomqu and friends | 73c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aomqu and friends vs yache123 (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Aomqu and friends vs yache123 - Game 1 WinnerAomqu and friends won
- Dota 2: Aomqu and friends vs yache123 - Game 2 Winneryache123 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.