Tennis · resolved market
ITF Metzingen: Daniel Siniakov vs Raphael Perot
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfda94778b0910597e3884c0804c34b05d5d7d798527a14701d94db6fa06c2193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raphael Perotof Daniel Siniakov, Raphael Perot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Raphael Perot | 66c | 4,498$2,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.89 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Daniel Siniakov | 16c | 2,441$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.95 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Daniel Siniakov | 17c | 1,242$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raphael Perot | 80c | 501.16$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Daniel Siniakov | 29c | 293$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Raphael Perot | 73c | 287.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Daniel Siniakov | 16c | 244.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Daniel Siniakov | 24c | 188.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Daniel Siniakov | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Daniel Siniakov | 17c | 123.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Daniel Siniakov | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Daniel Siniakov | 15c | 118.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Daniel Siniakov | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Daniel Siniakov | 58c | 88.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Raphael Perot | 42c | 80.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Daniel Siniakov | 17c | 76.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Daniel Siniakov | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Raphael Perot | 45c | 71.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Daniel Siniakov | 37c | 62.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Daniel Siniakov | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Daniel Siniakov | 55c | 53.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Daniel Siniakov | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Daniel Siniakov | 39c | 53.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Raphael Perot | 79c | 51.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Raphael Perot | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -21.0wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Daniel Siniakov | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Daniel Siniakov | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Raphael Perot | 44c | 34.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Daniel Siniakov | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…b258backed Daniel Siniakov | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Daniel Siniakov | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Daniel Siniakov | 60c | 17.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.