Premier League · resolved market
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb3678cbe1879b5ebad6f8dd74a534ac1aaa14e53a59017a4055de9c324b35d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 22c | 1,571$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.83 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 27c | 792.5$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.52 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked No | 80c | 505$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…4340backed Yes | 21c | 419.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 21c | 414$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.06 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…a97bbacked Yes | 21c | 273.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.78 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 79c | 222$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 29c | 173.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.72 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 21c | 118.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…f868backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 20c | 102.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 80c | 100.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1552…3379backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 73c | 70.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…f7b2backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…9e72backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 34c | 49.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1f0bbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73ef…9c5abacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…cc4ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 78c | 20.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…beffbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…6853backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…bea5backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…2847backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…f1aebacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665a…fc37backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…9aabbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283c…5a85backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…bd83backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…722fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 78cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…30a5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 79cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…59b9backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 73cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2025-01-14?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.