Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdcc75dd83fe8848ebcde5becfaf372c18f01f76d746c81b22696cf9f3b9839a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes | 38c | 3,424$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 2,663$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.03 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,579$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.76 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 33c | 1,536$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 34c | 1,079$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.84 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed No | 31c | 970.93$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.64 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 36c | 630$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 57c | 531.65$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 66c | 296.85$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed No | 62c | 294.68$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 259.58$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 34c | 257.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.41 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 229.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Yes | 70c | 191.19$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Yes | 70c | 190.14$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 167.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 60c | 162.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 61c | 162$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 133.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Yes | 70c | 116.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 39c | 114.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 94.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Yes | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 84.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 39c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 33c | 73.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Yes | 70c | 69.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Yes | 48c | 62.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Yes | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 50c | 43.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 43c | 41.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Yes | 70c | 37.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 39c | 30.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 61c | 28.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…8319backed Yes | 45c | 26.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae4…da94backed Yes | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 67c | 24.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 55c | 24.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 24.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 68c | 21.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 63c | 20.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 17.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-05?this page
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.