Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Thun win on 2026-08-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdceb6e3d1a0a7cf308ce7157c1b60acead0e603e9a53de2e42ce66fbe65869e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 20c | 2,029$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.02 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 1,762$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.12 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 1,313$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.34 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed No | 48c | 1,200$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.58 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…3c46backed Yes | 35c | 944.78$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 32c | 799.97$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 51c | 661.02$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.12 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 46c | 563.35$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.21 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 426.05$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.53 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 349.35$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 68c | 345.48$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed No | 68c | 291.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 178.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 32c | 161.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 72c | 126.22$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 44c | 106.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 42c | 98.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 32c | 97.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed Yes | 32c | 96.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 69c | 89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 60c | 85.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 47c | 82.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 41c | 80.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Yes | 52c | 79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 32c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Yes | 55c | 72.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Yes | 33c | 70.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 46c | 69.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Yes | 20c | 67.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 33c | 60.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 40c | 49.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 33c | 47.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 32c | 41.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 54c | 37.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 33c | 31.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 64c | 24.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 64c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166d…56ddbacked No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 65c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Thun win on 2026-08-13?this page
- Will KF Víkingur vs. FC Thun end in a draw?No won
- Will KF Víkingur win on 2026-08-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.