Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will KF Víkingur vs. FC Thun end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1fc710c693cf43db0f4fa0cc497514fb2b1c8f3f3cc03b299e779ee914c8458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 25c | 16,069$4,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,023.76 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 75c | 5,597$4,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.24 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 3,176$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.02 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 1,766$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.78 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 1,174$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.19 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…e3d8backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 75c | 839.33$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 629.37$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 75c | 449.99$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 403$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Yes | 24c | 370.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 332.36$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 11c | 326$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 24c | 320.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 76c | 294.02$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 74c | 242.1$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 178$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 8c | 176$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 28c | 165.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 126.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 76c | 88.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 75c | 78.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed No | 75c | 74.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 63.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 76c | 51.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 28c | 43.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f1…4d6ebacked No | 75c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…b156backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked No | 76c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KF Víkingur vs. FC Thun end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Thun win on 2026-08-13?No won
- Will KF Víkingur win on 2026-08-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.