Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdd046b88bcc5c09de44e925e2becc42026ee626f2e2a271ff43fcf1a755143e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 493.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 46c | 352.7$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.63 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 265.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 265$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked Yes | 67c | 225.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 223.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 208.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 170.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 39c | 152.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 19c | 137$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 128$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 69c | 113.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 42c | 112.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 56c | 111.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 36c | 106.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 98.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 42c | 96.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 53c | 93.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 90.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 42c | 84.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 43c | 77.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes | 49c | 74.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…87d5backed No | 69c | 72.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 46c | 66.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 62.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 50c | 58.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 66c | 56.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 55.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 60c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 68c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 40.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 34c | 39.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 51c | 39.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 56c | 35.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 32.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 29.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 29.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 29.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 70c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 72c | 24.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 53c | 23.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 23.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 66c | 18.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.