NHL · resolved market

Spread: Stars (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdd073a8389b268599764af399efb3bc82e66342d4ff9af40698f8b84096be49

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Red Wingsof Stars, Red Wings
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,469 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Stars	34c	9,465$3,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,193.3	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Red Wings	66c	3,000$1,980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	286	52.4%150 W · 136 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Red Wings	67c	2,300$1,532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$768	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Red Wings	67c	1,210$811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.29	619	59.1%366 W · 253 L	+17.9wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc14…6ff9backed Stars	33c	890$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Stars	35c	715.54$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	203	45.3%92 W · 111 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Red Wings	65c	671.54$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.04	881	51.2%451 W · 430 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Red Wings	66c	600$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	222	48.2%107 W · 115 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings	66c	545.71$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.54	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef8…dd05backed Red Wings	67c	350$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Red Wings	66c	325.43$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.9	919	45.6%419 W · 500 L	-27.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Wings	65c	320.33$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.12	1,406	47%661 W · 745 L	+58.6wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28db…1458backed Red Wings	67c	300$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Stars	34c	290.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	63	63.5%40 W · 23 L	+9.2wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Red Wings	66c	240$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.6	376	49.7%187 W · 189 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a7…1892backed Red Wings	67c	240$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Stars	35c	177.65$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.18	2,664	51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings	68c	154.41$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.41	811	57.2%464 W · 347 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Red Wings	66c	120$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.8	583	46.5%271 W · 312 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Red Wings	66c	120$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.8	792	51.1%405 W · 387 L	+21.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Red Wings	66c	120$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.8	89	52.8%47 W · 42 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Stars	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	541	32.7%177 W · 364 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Stars	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	490	45.3%222 W · 268 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Red Wings	66c	90$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.6	472	49.2%232 W · 240 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a1…e6f5backed Red Wings	67c	84$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.72	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Red Wings	66c	75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	481	49.3%237 W · 244 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Red Wings	66c	72$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.48	263	48.7%128 W · 135 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Red Wings	66c	72$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.48	271	48.7%132 W · 139 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Stars	34c	64.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.89	225	43.1%97 W · 128 L	-12.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Stars	32c	61.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	388	57.2%222 W · 166 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe055…5688backed Stars	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Red Wings	66c	54$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	264	48.9%129 W · 135 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Red Wings	66c	54$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Red Wings	66c	54$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	605	49.3%298 W · 307 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Red Wings	66c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	134	53%71 W · 63 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5384…7408backed Stars	34c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	204	47.5%97 W · 107 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	105	43.8%46 W · 59 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	112	47.3%53 W · 59 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	291	47.4%138 W · 153 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	130	46.2%60 W · 70 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	198	48.5%96 W · 102 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	194	42.8%83 W · 111 L	-12.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	189	46%87 W · 102 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	197	45.2%89 W · 108 L	-9.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Red Wings	67c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	190	46.8%89 W · 101 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Red Wings	66c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	200	45.5%91 W · 109 L	-7.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Red Wings	67c	27$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.91	1,377	49.1%676 W · 701 L	+39.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Red Wings	66c	23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Red Wings	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	432	50.9%220 W · 212 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	231	44.6%103 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	147	46.9%69 W · 78 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	175	52%91 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	102	50%51 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	209	42.6%89 W · 120 L	-12.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	418	51.4%215 W · 203 L	+14.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	105	52.4%55 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Red Wings	66c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Red Wings	67c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.94	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfca6…9553backed Red Wings	68c	17.03$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.45	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
Stars vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
Stars vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
Stars vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Stars (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event