NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04047ca1aa8753aae43646c08d4ceb1a75c3186af007aaeb24d49def50fe3e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 3,252$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.78 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 2,444$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.13 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…8257backed Under | 55c | 2,432$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,203$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.54 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 56c | 750.24$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.39 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 717.29$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.1 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 666$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.17 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 53c | 566.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.51 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 519$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 444$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 53c | 247.92$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 205$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 165.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 55c | 156.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…1028backed Under | 54c | 132.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 46c | 110.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 54c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 56c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 43c | 52.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 42c | 47.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Stars vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Stars vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.