Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe30581f727802029f3f6466fe670099ab7b92d684c43177abc603873e6d4d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 69c | 4,769$3,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.53 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 1,129$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.32 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 31c | 1,022$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.69 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 33c | 976.29$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 48c | 838.49$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 31c | 835.73$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.08 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 37c | 526.03$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 492.25$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.78 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 67c | 485.21$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.12 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 430.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 386.85$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 31c | 249.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 68c | 165.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 149.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 31c | 137.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 37c | 129.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…a0b1backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 69.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 61c | 69.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Under | 32c | 68.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 63.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 59.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 61c | 56.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…79b1backed Over | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 77c | 47.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Under | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 31c | 39.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 69c | 32.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 55c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f8…2c9abacked Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 61c | 24.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 49c | 23.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 68c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.