Mls · resolved market
Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72b8bacbef554e7f58e2880103fb517224565a05e811e43f54ee395a5afb5d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Salt Lakeof Orlando City SC, Real Salt Lake
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd619…c461backed Real Salt Lake | 71c | 4,800$3,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Orlando City SC | 30c | 2,295$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Orlando City SC | 28c | 1,976$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Real Salt Lake | 73c | 924$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.48 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Real Salt Lake | 72c | 872.05$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.04 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Orlando City SC | 16c | 801.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Orlando City SC | 27c | 462$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Orlando City SC | 27c | 462$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Orlando City SC | 29c | 363.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Orlando City SC | 33c | 297.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Real Salt Lake | 68c | 244.1$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Orlando City SC | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Real Salt Lake | 67c | 195.91$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Real Salt Lake | 70c | 150.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Real Salt Lake | 71c | 142.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Orlando City SC | 30c | 117.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Salt Lake | 70c | 82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Orlando City SC | 30c | 75.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Real Salt Lake | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Real Salt Lake | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Orlando City SC | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Orlando City SC | 29c | 39.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Real Salt Lake | 72c | 39.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Real Salt Lake | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Real Salt Lake | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Real Salt Lake | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Real Salt Lake | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Real Salt Lake | 69c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Real Salt Lake | 74c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…140dbacked Real Salt Lake | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Real Salt Lake | 80c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.