Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dba8e0434f8bbd1195243442e5fcb4d97212f8c4cd14186bde132ebbe1726ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 3,359$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.21 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 62c | 1,901$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 66c | 1,327$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.51 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 1,325$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.62 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,206$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.2 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 35c | 1,170$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 38c | 929$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.02 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 817.44$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.36 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 730.33$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 55c | 548.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…8b4cbacked Over | 23c | 217.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 47c | 138.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 32c | 107.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 107.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 22c | 87.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 35c | 87.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 73c | 70.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…a0b1backed Under | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 27c | 65.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…1f5cbacked Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…34d6backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 54c | 48.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 48.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 32c | 46.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 34c | 44.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 70c | 44.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa250…b806backed Over | 48c | 42.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…490ebacked Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 49c | 39.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Under | 55c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…79b1backed Over | 46c | 33.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 35c | 30.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…6d91backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 58c | 25.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d01…0f69backed Under | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 54c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 76c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Over | 47c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…f368backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.