Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2025-12-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe42241d27ca79c4bf97b3e668b56115bafc6d95477b9a128f91262487a70364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 23c | 17,933$4,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,206.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6603…959ebacked Yes | 45c | 6,636$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 4,707$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 72c | 4,580$3,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Yes | 69c | 4,000$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Yes | 42c | 3,597$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 42c | 2,200$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 50c | 1,443$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.56 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 14c | 876.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 45c | 840.59$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.65 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 55c | 786.53$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.59 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 20c | 768.92$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.46 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 44c | 611.87$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 42c | 481.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 57c | 454.84$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes | 45c | 449.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 13c | 310.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Yes | 70c | 297.14$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 253.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 39c | 238.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.45 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes | 43c | 233.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 45c | 223.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.04 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2ad8backed Yes | 44c | 167.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 44c | 134.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 42c | 122.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed No | 54c | 119.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 44c | 102.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…b997backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 51c | 88.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed Yes | 70c | 86.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 32c | 72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f59…04cdbacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 53c | 61.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 41c | 52.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 59c | 46.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed No | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68f…7152backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139a…34bbbacked No | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked No | 56c | 18.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2025-12-05?this page
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2025-12-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.