World Politics · resolved market
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5a3c4baf17f0b0e72d76b88f147761c3a85ba80ab23af09d1f23529c4e40fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 9c | 6,739$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.63 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 13c | 5,530$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.75 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,488$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.24 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…f8c4backed Yes | 10c | 5,291$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 4c | 3,805$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…9530backed Yes | 9c | 1,736$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +300.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…ac7abacked Yes | 9c | 1,431$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,301$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…d176backed Yes | 15c | 829.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 731$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225c…40dcbacked Yes | 13c | 699.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 9c | 696.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fa…5496backed Yes | 9c | 631.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9f…fbfabacked Yes | 10c | 586.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 13c | 561.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 531.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 21c | 411.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 355.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f8…2d1dbacked Yes | 14c | 349.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 146.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…544dbacked Yes | 10c | 137.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked Yes | 16c | 134.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 133.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…2991backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3913…58dbbacked Yes | 19c | 106.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dc…86dfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41d…9d9dbacked Yes | 15c | 76.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…bce0backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 74c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils?this page
- Will Reform UK win control of the most London borough councils?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win control of the most London borough councils?No won
- Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough councils?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.