South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5b6307c7db1ed7a81e2b2fcc647774d9d0ae8f43eac049c020d061a1eca8ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,375 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 15c | 4,359$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.39 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 18c | 4,100$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.99 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 33c | 4,094$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.62 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 18c | 2,422$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.87 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,298$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 50c | 1,191$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.97 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…2f48backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 18c | 1,108$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.02 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 945.68$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…6fc7backed Yes | 26c | 813.88$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc0…1934backed No | 74c | 813.88$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…1c5dbacked Yes | 47c | 802.27$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 18c | 506$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 66c | 465.41$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.62 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 6c | 420.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 48c | 353.93$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…7889backed Yes | 17c | 352.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 19c | 283.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 17c | 237.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3689…e964backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 18c | 174$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…12cdbacked Yes | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…25e2backed Yes | 11c | 142.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…3287backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Yes | 18c | 138.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 17c | 116.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 106.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 62c | 96.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 17c | 94.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaed…88c4backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 17c | 82.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Yes | 58c | 77.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 64c | 71.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 232 | 54.7%127 W · 105 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 70.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 80c | 70.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 42c | 69.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 17c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…7505backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf52…555ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb860…e71fbacked Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.