South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cd9e3f46c4704b0783112d8f7f2a6335045e81529ddf24fd52c8da814130681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,701 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 35c | 6,605$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,275.28 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 73c | 6,061$4,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.71 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 4,829$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,221.63 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 3,290$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.15 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 45c | 3,060$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.76 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 2,058$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.62 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 27c | 1,815$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.95 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61aa…ff6fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,669$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 50c | 1,436$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.91 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 29c | 1,378$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.01 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 73c | 1,275$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.75 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 25c | 1,079$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.08 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 6c | 1,028$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 77c | 1,010$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 57c | 960.44$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.45 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 26c | 922.22$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.22 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 52c | 717.86$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.14 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 24c | 549.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.47 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 73c | 548.17$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.16 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 37c | 507.95$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 37c | 410.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.42 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 74c | 346.15$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.15 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…691abacked Yes | 69c | 318.34$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed No | 50c | 305.84$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…dee9backed Yes | 30c | 276.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…78c4backed No | 70c | 276.62$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 262.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.14 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 57c | 242.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…25e2backed Yes | 61c | 180.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 42c | 172.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked No | 58c | 171.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 35c | 143.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 41c | 120.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 64c | 116$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 36c | 94.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 74c | 82.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 62c | 79.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 76c | 75.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 73c | 74.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 61c | 73.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 64c | 67.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 31c | 66.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 29c | 66.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 59.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 59c | 56.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 30c | 56.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 58c | 52.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 48c | 44.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 35c | 42.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Yes | 29c | 36.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Yes | 33c | 36.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Yes | 38c | 33.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 29.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 26.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 24.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Yes | 46c | 23.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Yes | 80c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 61c | 21.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…94d1backed Yes | 72c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…00aebacked Yes | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-22?No won
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.