MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe90bf11efdd012c3c6794f3703efd2f32cb8d29e36447059bd3db4df325c825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Cardinals, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals | 43c | 8,992$3,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,853.56 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Brewers | 57c | 8,772$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,771.96 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Brewers | 56c | 6,263$3,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.8 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cardinals | 42c | 5,024$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.3 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 19c | 3,675$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.03 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Cardinals | 27c | 3,211$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.43 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Brewers | 74c | 2,872$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Cardinals | 46c | 2,709$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246 | 389 | 49.1%191 W · 198 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Cardinals | 44c | 2,527$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.96 | 380 | 47.6%181 W · 199 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…136abacked Cardinals | 44c | 2,228$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.31 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Cardinals | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Brewers | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Brewers | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Cardinals | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Brewers | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Brewers | 54c | 1,818$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.52 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cardinals | 27c | 1,451$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.13 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Cardinals | 45c | 1,088$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.6 | 313 | 46.6%146 W · 167 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Brewers | 67c | 1,077$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.7 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…e520backed Brewers | 55c | 1,045$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.25 | 279 | 53.4%149 W · 130 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cardinals | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cardinals | 46c | 999.97$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Brewers | 61c | 615.82$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.19 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cardinals | 36c | 579.8$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Brewers | 56c | 536$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.84 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…a476backed Brewers | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Brewers | 76c | 389$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Brewers | 68c | 369$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Brewers | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Cardinals | 30c | 280$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 45c | 222.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Cardinals | 46c | 217.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Cardinals | 44c | 184.21$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Cardinals | 28c | 181.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 203 | 43.8%89 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Brewers | 55c | 181.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Brewers | 55c | 181.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cardinals | 47c | 155.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Brewers | 54c | 152.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Brewers | 57c | 118$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0fe8backed Brewers | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Cardinals | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cardinals | 44c | 99.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cardinals | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Cardinals | 45c | 88.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…0e11backed Brewers | 76c | 81.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 429 | 55%236 W · 193 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cardinals | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Cardinals | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Brewers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cardinals | 19c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…adf4backed Cardinals | 46c | 57.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…f648backed Cardinals | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…5ac2backed Brewers | 57c | 55.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…b450backed Cardinals | 45c | 54.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cardinals | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…a3ecbacked Cardinals | 46c | 49.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…d035backed Cardinals | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Brewers | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Cardinals | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cardinals | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Cardinals | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 508 | 43.3%220 W · 288 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Cardinals | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5635…44a3backed Brewers | 56c | 32.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Brewers | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Brewers | 68c | 31.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1523…7c69backed Brewers | 56c | 31.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…3857backed Brewers | 55c | 30.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Brewers | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed Brewers | 61c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.