Lol · resolved market
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebe9880b4d08d429a73cc2625ce7bd0d810e223a85f0c95971f45e03d4337bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arctic Pandasof Arctic Pandas, NightBirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,121 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked NightBirds | 1c | 4,480$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 402 | 37.8%152 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c30dbacked NightBirds | 49c | 2,807$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.99 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…4c38backed NightBirds | 50c | 2,177$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.43 | 240 | 65%156 W · 84 L | +24.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed NightBirds | 69c | 2,116$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.81 | 1,806 | 39.1%707 W · 1,099 L | -30.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Arctic Pandas | 41c | 2,111$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.05 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1277backed NightBirds | 4c | 1,764$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Arctic Pandas | 53c | 1,487$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.23 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Arctic Pandas | 54c | 1,446$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.34 | 2,004 | 58.2%1,166 W · 838 L | +86.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Arctic Pandas | 45c | 1,202$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.65 | 1,003 | 42.5%426 W · 577 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…0b70backed Arctic Pandas | 74c | 1,107$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.42 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed NightBirds | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,258 | 38.6%485 W · 773 L | -61.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed NightBirds | 24c | 573.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed NightBirds | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 862 | 51.3%442 W · 420 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…d07fbacked Arctic Pandas | 43c | 497.44$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.54 | 959 | 51.3%492 W · 467 L | +42.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…e74dbacked Arctic Pandas | 26c | 419.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked NightBirds | 19c | 405.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 1,592 | 34%541 W · 1,051 L | -79.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked NightBirds | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed NightBirds | 29c | 342.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…f69ebacked NightBirds | 60c | 325.62$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NightBirds | 22c | 281.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 2,905 | 38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L | -118.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arctic Pandas | 37c | 240.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.17 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked NightBirds | 47c | 186.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…5cefbacked NightBirds | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 170 | 57.1%97 W · 73 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed NightBirds | 32c | 181.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,241 | 52.7%654 W · 587 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Arctic Pandas | 40c | 165.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…9db7backed Arctic Pandas | 40c | 160.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NightBirds | 59c | 150.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed NightBirds | 35c | 138.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 217 | 47%102 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arctic Pandas | 34c | 108$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 2,311 | 39.4%910 W · 1,401 L | -83.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked NightBirds | 31c | 84.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed NightBirds | 28c | 71.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Arctic Pandas | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,175 | 47.4%557 W · 618 L | +42.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa649…af7dbacked Arctic Pandas | 54c | 67.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed NightBirds | 38c | 63.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,270 | 57%724 W · 546 L | +45.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Arctic Pandas | 74c | 53.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…fa4bbacked NightBirds | 24c | 47.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed NightBirds | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 233 | 48.1%112 W · 121 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed NightBirds | 36c | 37.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf175…a903backed Arctic Pandas | 75c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: NBS (-1.5) vs Arctic Pandas (+1.5)Arctic Pandas won
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group CArctic Pandas won
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds - Game 1 WinnerArctic Pandas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.