Lol · resolved market
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x432bed885587aa50973431cfd22b0bc8e9944b207e8ca10942e9ce7510bc4f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arctic Pandasof Arctic Pandas, NightBirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,325 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bdd…23dcbacked NightBirds | 61c | 15,000$9,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,224.92 | 171 | 63.2%108 W · 63 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…4003backed Arctic Pandas | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100 | 283 | 61.5%174 W · 109 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Arctic Pandas | 44c | 4,173$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.86 | 1,003 | 42.5%426 W · 577 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…4c38backed NightBirds | 55c | 4,005$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.89 | 240 | 65%156 W · 84 L | +24.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Arctic Pandas | 47c | 3,363$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.08 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Arctic Pandas | 52c | 2,987$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.5 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Arctic Pandas | 45c | 1,925$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.09 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c30dbacked NightBirds | 63c | 1,872$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.29 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Arctic Pandas | 38c | 1,800$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112 | 2,004 | 58.2%1,166 W · 838 L | +86.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed NightBirds | 16c | 1,583$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.43 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Arctic Pandas | 59c | 1,199$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.89 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked NightBirds | 62c | 958$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.96 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…12ecbacked Arctic Pandas | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…d07fbacked Arctic Pandas | 39c | 600$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 959 | 51.3%492 W · 467 L | +42.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Arctic Pandas | 38c | 545.45$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.18 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…0b70backed NightBirds | 16c | 519.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…9896backed Arctic Pandas | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 506 | 46%233 W · 273 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed NightBirds | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,806 | 39.1%707 W · 1,099 L | -30.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Arctic Pandas | 36c | 494.6$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.54 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Arctic Pandas | 38c | 460.65$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NightBirds | 56c | 440$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.58 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked NightBirds | 63c | 396$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…f357backed Arctic Pandas | 38c | 360$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 113 | 40.7%46 W · 67 L | -12.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed NightBirds | 56c | 329.76$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 1,270 | 57%724 W · 546 L | +45.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…b62dbacked Arctic Pandas | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 685 | 57.5%394 W · 291 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Arctic Pandas | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 664 | 45.6%303 W · 361 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Arctic Pandas | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Arctic Pandas | 37c | 236.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.82 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arctic Pandas | 36c | 210.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed NightBirds | 14c | 189$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 1,924 | 35.9%691 W · 1,233 L | -97.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Arctic Pandas | 37c | 157.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NightBirds | 38c | 130.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 2,905 | 38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L | -118.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked NightBirds | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 402 | 37.8%152 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…2242backed NightBirds | 64c | 117.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…5cefbacked NightBirds | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 57.1%97 W · 73 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed NightBirds | 64c | 101.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Arctic Pandas | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,175 | 47.4%557 W · 618 L | +42.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked Arctic Pandas | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 260 | 49.2%128 W · 132 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Arctic Pandas | 37c | 94.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed NightBirds | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Arctic Pandas | 37c | 79.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +57%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Arctic Pandas | 39c | 68.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Arctic Pandas | 38c | 67.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed NightBirds | 67c | 64.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1,241 | 52.7%654 W · 587 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NightBirds | 33c | 64.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Arctic Pandas | 38c | 60.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Arctic Pandas | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Arctic Pandas | 37c | 49.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked NightBirds | 63c | 47.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked NightBirds | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,311 | 39.4%910 W · 1,401 L | -83.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…fecfbacked Arctic Pandas | 39c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…7eadbacked Arctic Pandas | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 188 | 46.3%87 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa649…af7dbacked Arctic Pandas | 38c | 38.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Arctic Pandas | 39c | 32.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 106 | 38.7%41 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Arctic Pandas | 39c | 30.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…3841backed Arctic Pandas | 39c | 30.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…c9aabacked NightBirds | 64c | 30.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Arctic Pandas | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Arctic Pandas | 68c | 27.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked NightBirds | 63c | 26.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: NBS (-1.5) vs Arctic Pandas (+1.5)Arctic Pandas won
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group CArctic Pandas won
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds - Game 2 WinnerArctic Pandas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.