NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Bills: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfedcdf6b5d2b38d0a946649ce533b2379b84bcd27befb5e1454f056fa542b033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 47c | 8,415$3,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,427.1 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 53c | 7,990$4,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,198.28 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 4,120$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.2 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 53c | 3,114$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.56 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 1,819$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.69 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…bd9bbacked Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 47c | 1,030$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.79 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 991.94$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.3 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 864.53$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.91 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e84…fbdabacked Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4365…e6d8backed Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 48c | 600$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 342.23$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.27 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 51c | 215$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…99aebacked Over | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 125.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Over | 52c | 108.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 51c | 49.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…751ebacked Under | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Bills: O/U 46.5this page
- Buccaneers vs. BillsBills won
- Buccaneers vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Buccaneers vs. Bills: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Buccaneers vs. Bills: O/U 47.5Over won
- Buccaneers vs. Bills: O/U 48.5Over won
- Buccaneers vs. Bills: O/U 49.5Over won
- Buccaneers vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-5.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.