Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfef8cb61831edcee0fc27dfe394455afe0f4dd3577bf05a6432c6efe88dee3bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2d4…299dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,105$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e55dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +441.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 1c | 3,148$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,186$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 294.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed Yes | 58c | 260.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 240.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 8c | 165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 156.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 27c | 146.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 17c | 144.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 65c | 123.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 37c | 110.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 109.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 109.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 67c | 107.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +24.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…3a4cbacked No | 71c | 102.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 90.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 89.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 83.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 76c | 82.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 439 | 51%224 W · 215 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 42c | 82.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked No | 62c | 80.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc05d…f37ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 65.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 65.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…00a0backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 27c | 58.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ed…548fbacked Yes | 23c | 47.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 42.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…8748backed No | 76c | 42.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 78c | 39.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 30c | 34.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 32.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 38c | 32.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 70c | 31.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 63c | 29.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 42c | 29.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 43c | 28.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 57c | 28.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1157…c118backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked No | 68c | 27.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 47c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 56c | 23.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 21.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…e366backed Yes | 74c | 21.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 141 | 34%48 W · 93 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…7435backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…7946backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c6…ec7abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 192 | 33.9%65 W · 127 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…b3debacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.