TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Tallahassee: Clement Tabur vs Tyler Zink

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clement Taburof Clement Tabur, Tyler Zink
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84ad…bfb7backed Tyler Zink6c13,595$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.014,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tyler Zink20c4,879$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.677,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed Tyler Zink42c4,636$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.9624557.6%141 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Clement Tabur59c3,600$2,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.173,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Clement Tabur69c3,336$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.399,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb376…3838backed Tyler Zink41c3,307$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.611546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Clement Tabur60c2,176$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.241,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Tyler Zink37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74058232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Clement Tabur79c1,961$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.055971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Clement Tabur76c1,892$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.424,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tyler Zink21c1,763$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.192,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Clement Tabur78c1,638$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.2365952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Tyler Zink38c1,598$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.433464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+36.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Tyler Zink40c1,569$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.7130744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Clement Tabur60c1,496$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.7215948.4%77 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0179…adcdbacked Clement Tabur79c1,408$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.038562.4%53 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Tyler Zink40c1,265$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061,42555.1%785 W · 640 L+23.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Clement Tabur63c1,031$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.771,77252.1%923 W · 849 L-1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Tyler Zink19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19045445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Clement Tabur59c890$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.97,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Tyler Zink24c795.33$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.881,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Clement Tabur60c650.67$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.2729444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Tyler Zink11c636.42$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.925,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Tyler Zink40c614.99$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9915248%73 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Tyler Zink14c599.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Tyler Zink38c598.1$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.4997745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Clement Tabur61c547.72$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.6132247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4815…8ba4backed Clement Tabur63c517.13$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.092556%14 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Clement Tabur77c510.31$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3111,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Clement Tabur60c506.93$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.121,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Tyler Zink20c490.26$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5356754.5%309 W · 258 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Clement Tabur62c472.85$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.682,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Tyler Zink41c470.54$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.9224747.4%117 W · 130 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Tyler Zink39c435.31$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.717,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d4…d2f2backed Tyler Zink30c432.5$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Clement Tabur78c413.32$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.321,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Clement Tabur57c385.96$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.961,92655.4%1,067 W · 859 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4744…ea27backed Clement Tabur78c379.54$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.54148.8%20 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Tyler Zink14c377.37$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0712739.4%50 W · 77 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Tyler Zink37c364.32$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8858734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Clement Tabur61c362.31$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.347552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Clement Tabur61c320.2$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8884963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Tyler Zink39c320.13$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2930131.9%96 W · 205 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Clement Tabur62c315.23$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7918258.8%107 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…3214backed Tyler Zink7c285.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2038522.3%86 W · 299 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Tyler Zink40c282.81$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.131,51224.1%364 W · 1,148 L-41.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b9…9613backed Clement Tabur74c265.66$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4112664.3%81 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Clement Tabur77c259.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7373549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Clement Tabur79c249.97$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4946453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500e…6118backed Clement Tabur61c240.15$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6624065%156 W · 84 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clement Tabur77c237.36$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.852,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Tyler Zink19c235.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7820331%63 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tyler Zink16c235.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.677,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Tyler Zink16c221.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.66,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Tyler Zink39c164.74$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2560856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Clement Tabur60c162.67$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.075450%27 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…d2b5backed Clement Tabur61c160.1$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4441668%283 W · 133 L+23.6wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x033a…586dbacked Clement Tabur62c157.61$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.899565.3%62 W · 33 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Clement Tabur61c146.84$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.271,06857.4%613 W · 455 L+21.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Clement Tabur70c140.37$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.171,67353%887 W · 786 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2344…3dbebacked Clement Tabur60c130.13$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.054151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Clement Tabur78c129.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1457953.7%311 W · 268 L+19.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Clement Tabur78c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8337071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Clement Tabur79c126.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.542,13556%1,195 W · 940 L+41.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Tyler Zink39c123.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1763052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Clement Tabur62c120.95$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3719854.5%108 W · 90 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Clement Tabur61c119.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7914551%74 W · 71 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Tyler Zink23c117.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.817460.3%105 W · 69 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c79…5f0abacked Clement Tabur77c115.27$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick73cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a89…4761backed Clement Tabur62c108.66$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.23757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Tyler Zink39c107.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8118447.3%87 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Tyler Zink38c104.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6277047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…3f90backed Clement Tabur67c102.05$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.415570.3%109 W · 46 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Clement Tabur76c100.77$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2491880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Tyler Zink37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7988…a57ebacked Clement Tabur60c96.35$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.543429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec0f…98e0backed Clement Tabur61c96.06$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.46771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Clement Tabur61c95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.051,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Clement Tabur59c93.03$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.141,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Tyler Zink40c92.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8825342.7%108 W · 145 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…6a46backed Tyler Zink21c90.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0518410.9%20 W · 164 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb14…9235backed Tyler Zink24c87.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.777146.5%33 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…3abfbacked Tyler Zink39c86.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7226734.1%91 W · 176 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Tyler Zink39c81.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7972542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf804…4c3dbacked Clement Tabur71c79.42$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Clement Tabur61c79.1$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8557267.3%385 W · 187 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Tyler Zink38c74.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.481,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Tyler Zink25c73.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3474346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a0…7d2ebacked Tyler Zink31c67.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.095248.1%25 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b08…aaf4backed Clement Tabur76c67.19$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1210842.6%46 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Clement Tabur61c64.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2182055%451 W · 369 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Tyler Zink39c61.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0931463.1%198 W · 116 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x810f…eca4backed Clement Tabur71c59.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.951361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Clement Tabur77c53.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.296150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d9…3be3backed Clement Tabur61c52.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4316459.8%98 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffda…4455backed Tyler Zink39c51.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.23825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Tyler Zink38c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1936349.9%181 W · 182 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Clement Tabur80c49.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0810742.1%45 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7b…e99bbacked Clement Tabur61c48.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.733759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf6…2971backed Clement Tabur60c45.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.224362.8%27 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.