Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff2ce8fd3fbe3a30a29739ab4140a894bdd2162af16306f38ff33773b0da7062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Kostyuk, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kostyuk | 35c | 19,396$6,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,766.68 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked Kostyuk | 0c | 18,976$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Pegula | 71c | 8,699$6,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.22 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…7691backed Pegula | 61c | 8,333$5,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.71 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pegula | 67c | 2,915$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.52 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kostyuk | 41c | 1,786$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.87 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Pegula | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Kostyuk | 36c | 960.27$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.7 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pegula | 64c | 864.32$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.8 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Kostyuk | 32c | 851.19$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.88 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kostyuk | 34c | 718.36$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.82 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Pegula | 59c | 675.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.54 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Pegula | 59c | 669.84$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.63 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Pegula | 66c | 584.19$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.63 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Kostyuk | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kostyuk | 35c | 518.15$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.93 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pegula | 72c | 482.21$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Kostyuk | 35c | 371.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Pegula | 68c | 295.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Pegula | 61c | 245$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Kostyuk | 22c | 209.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Pegula | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Kostyuk | 28c | 177.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Kostyuk | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Kostyuk | 39c | 164$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Kostyuk | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Kostyuk | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kostyuk | 38c | 114.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Pegula | 63c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Pegula | 74c | 107.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…19dabacked Pegula | 71c | 103$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Kostyuk | 40c | 94.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Pegula | 56c | 89.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Pegula | 73c | 87.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kostyuk | 39c | 84.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Kostyuk | 38c | 61.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Pegula | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Pegula | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…e7a1backed Pegula | 78c | 46.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pegula | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Kostyuk | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Kostyuk | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Pegula | 60c | 36.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Pegula | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…3364backed Pegula | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Pegula | 62c | 31.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Pegula | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.