Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Two Move vs Power Rangers - Game 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff4eb76cf41950df7e836387934fce183be7a09d11eb3dfd93ac14613eddcd05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Power Rangersof Two Move, Power Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Two Move | 25c | 3,696$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.26 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Power Rangers | 78c | 2,000$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Power Rangers | 77c | 1,635$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.57 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…14d3backed Two Move | 5c | 1,045$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Two Move | 33c | 936.36$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Two Move | 22c | 919.23$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.04 | 353 | 61.2%216 W · 137 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Two Move | 7c | 844.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Power Rangers | 64c | 799.98$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Power Rangers | 72c | 625.99$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.64 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Power Rangers | 76c | 580.48$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.93 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Power Rangers | 66c | 510$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.4 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Two Move | 20c | 457.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 791 | 59.4%470 W · 321 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Two Move | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 435 | 38.6%168 W · 267 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Two Move | 7c | 393.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 893 | 41.5%371 W · 522 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…4c94backed Two Move | 44c | 310$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Power Rangers | 80c | 309.22$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Two Move | 29c | 295.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Two Move | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Two Move | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Power Rangers | 62c | 186.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Power Rangers | 71c | 174.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Power Rangers | 76c | 129.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Power Rangers | 80c | 124.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Two Move | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed Power Rangers | 59c | 92.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Two Move | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed Power Rangers | 66c | 78.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 302 | 60.3%182 W · 120 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…7658backed Power Rangers | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Power Rangers | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed Power Rangers | 60c | 58.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…71cebacked Two Move | 36c | 53.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Power Rangers | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 402 | 42.3%170 W · 232 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Power Rangers | 78c | 46.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Power Rangers | 78c | 46.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,255 | 49.6%623 W · 632 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Power Rangers | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Power Rangers | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Two Move | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Power Rangers | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Power Rangers | 75c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Two Move vs Power Rangers - Game 4 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Two Move vs Power Rangers (BO5) - European Pro League PlayoffsPower Rangers won
- Dota 2: Two Move vs Power Rangers - Game 1 WinnerPower Rangers won
- Dota 2: Two Move vs Power Rangers - Game 2 WinnerTwo Move won
- Dota 2: Two Move vs Power Rangers - Game 3 WinnerPower Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.