NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff5ce94a845539bfaeaa9b33c9e3f95d4c90b4751e563cf4b671145f784a33b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 53c | 9,473$4,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,478.91 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 47c | 5,595$2,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,645.98 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 5,328$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 4,509$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.66 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Over | 47c | 4,165$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.65 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 53c | 3,345$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.97 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.99 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 52c | 288.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 53c | 285$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…068ebacked Over | 46c | 180.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 47c | 178.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…43e6backed Over | 46c | 70.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Under | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5this page
- Heat vs. SpursSpurs won
- Heat vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Heat vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.