NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73fd617ca620c540b932fad7cf133bd6cc4d1658621eb61faada1ca76e8c7f2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 45c | 55,500$24,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,975 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Under | 55c | 42,103$23,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,946.19 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 21,299$10,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,705.08 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 7,760$4,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,513.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 56c | 5,625$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.93 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 44c | 3,447$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.68 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Under | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 56c | 1,592$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.88 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 44c | 1,167$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 1,038$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.95 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 50c | 960$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Over | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 48c | 400$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Over | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 140.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…e16cbacked Under | 63c | 127.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…736bbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…e2a4backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…3ba6backed Over | 42c | 37.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed Under | 57c | 33.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Under | 58c | 32.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -11.2wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…e528backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…0179backed Under | 57c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5this page
- Heat vs. SpursSpurs won
- Heat vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Heat vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Under won
- Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.