NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce8d6dd24673ba6f9638256bd5b6c33c32327a774f71500101f9e0cdf540841b

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 31, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $143,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $143,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,431 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x43d4…13a2backed Over	52c	99,432$51,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51,218.37	127	40.2%51 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	48c	33,012$15,846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,166.33	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	24,911$12,114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,796.78	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Under	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,000	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under	49c	11,917$5,839 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,077.76	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under	49c	5,010$2,455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,555.1	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Under	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,040	169	42%71 W · 98 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under	50c	3,500$1,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,750	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x087a…a510backed Over	51c	2,559$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Under	48c	1,500$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780	157	45.2%71 W · 86 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	51c	1,022$521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.57	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Under	49c	1,021$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.71	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	85	55.3%47 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x235e…5673backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	251	43.4%109 W · 142 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c39…9dfebacked Over	50c	176.1$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.05	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Under	49c	112.71$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.44	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	339	50.1%170 W · 169 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…f5ddbacked Over	51c	86.15$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	46c	63.68$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.39	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b2b…d4d3backed Over	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6db…fc65backed Over	52c	45.23$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Over	53c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	112	58.9%66 W · 46 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	246	45.9%113 W · 133 L	-13.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	482	55%265 W · 217 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event