World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff973580b989dd5fcc6e6151823ff6279a579991a1e420637a9db57773142ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,634$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.2 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,028$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.6 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 615.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 587.21$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.16 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 39c | 501.63$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 451.59$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 434.5$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 419.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 35c | 406.53$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 398.1$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 328.94$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 291.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 286.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 284.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 23c | 253.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 229.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 26c | 217.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 21c | 212.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 63c | 212.52$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 202.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 185.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 71c | 165.32$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 14c | 164.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 147.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 145.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 144$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 141.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 9c | 123.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 121$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 23c | 106.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 106.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 105.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 102.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 37c | 101.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…818ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 39c | 99.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 99.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 89.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 87.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 81.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 26c | 75.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 73.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 64.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 23c | 63.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 40c | 62.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 62.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 63c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 56.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 55.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…5c11backed No | 76c | 52.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 48.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 46.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 46.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 46.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 32c | 44.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 44.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 42.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 38c | 37.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…02abbacked No | 62c | 36.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 34.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…9c6fbacked Yes | 39c | 32.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 30.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked Yes | 39c | 29.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 28.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…708abacked No | 62c | 25.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 63c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 24.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed Yes | 43c | 23.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +56%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 67c | 23.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.