World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05b49d0e5492e9bc96bcda66cf50efdaa0c9293bd1be4e0c18e72d51405e35b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 57c | 1,954$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 47c | 1,328$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 10c | 812.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 764$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.48 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 60c | 593.41$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 587.25$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 72c | 569.36$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.47 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 464.03$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 441.22$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.33 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 398.1$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 43c | 360$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 37c | 356$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 314.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 30c | 287.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 37c | 262.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 227$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 38c | 226.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 43c | 225.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 216.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 29c | 203.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 37c | 200.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 179.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 150.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 10c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 147.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 145.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 143.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 140.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 139.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 23c | 131.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 126.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 80c | 124.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 53c | 120.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 20c | 118.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 37c | 116.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 36c | 112.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 48c | 110.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 24c | 98.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 42c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 35c | 94.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 90.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 90.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 42c | 88.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 88.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 46c | 85.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 83.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…44f1backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 50c | 79.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 60c | 73.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 72.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 69.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 29c | 68.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 62.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 35c | 62.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 62.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 54c | 58.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 57.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 56.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 56.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 56.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 53.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 52.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…ad12backed Yes | 79c | 50.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 49.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 46c | 46.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 33c | 45.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 45.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 42c | 43.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 42.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 42.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 60c | 41.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…4183backed No | 39c | 38.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 38.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.