Premier League · resolved market
Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffb372848e5824c2ca788b3d3f261926ea7426c661545476ec1f73cbc5b09a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 21c | 5,184$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.64 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…9470backed Yes | 20c | 1,017$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…784fbacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…a150backed Yes | 22c | 980$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…970dbacked Yes | 22c | 910$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 23c | 585.89$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…35e6backed No | 78c | 474.36$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…2405backed No | 78c | 435$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 78c | 356.81$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 17c | 350.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b69…3d19backed No | 78c | 310$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 22c | 300.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 21c | 243.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d3…2d11backed No | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 21c | 208$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…f733backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…3d88backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…7b9abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc2…76c7backed Yes | 24c | 83.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3987…a82dbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 76c | 77.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 78c | 32.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…2aa7backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 76c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-05-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.