TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,956 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa557…5e8abacked Under1c1,065$16 inLost-$15.6511914.3%17 W · 102 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+289.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c520.72$280 inLost-$279.912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under2c500$10 inLost-$101085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over47c425.51$200 inWon+$225.522,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over42c316.59$133 inWon+$183.628,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under36c100$36 inLost-$3682741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under57c92.15$53 inLost-$52.8810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under23c80$18 inLost-$18.42,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over68c56.54$38 inWon+$18.268,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under64c37.25$24 inLost-$23.844,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over36c37.25$13 inWon+$23.842,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Under58c36.29$21 inLost-$21.0510343.7%45 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Over44c34.09$15 inWon+$19.0924646.7%115 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over49c28.15$14 inWon+$14.296,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under62c20$12 inLost-$12.440341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.