MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x107ab1a31d26d6c22f797bedb1b8a7fa39fc133cb69bc54315eec0a29658815b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78cc…a081backed Yes | 50c | 2,004$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.39 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f7…ef5bbacked No | 55c | 1,167$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked No | 13c | 900$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…bb9bbacked Yes | 68c | 802.86$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.36 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed No | 11c | 623.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed No | 74c | 540$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 74c | 527$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.78 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 49c | 488.75$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.49 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 46c | 487.94$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.75 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 53c | 433.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 53c | 373.58$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Yes | 15c | 327$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.95 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 7c | 302.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 51c | 292.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 38c | 280.83$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.28 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked No | 25c | 225$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 45c | 194$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 46c | 141.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked No | 54c | 135.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed No | 17c | 119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 38c | 86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 67.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 70c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Yes | 46c | 50.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 43.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 45c | 37.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed No | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.