TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,454 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Astros41c21,113$8,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,755.331,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Orioles33c10,595$3,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,099.741,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Orioles73c8,746$6,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.0854345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Astros67c5,900$3,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,95313065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb307…5c7dbacked Orioles34c5,011$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.261850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Orioles34c4,918$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,245.938047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles33c4,385$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,937.771,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Astros66c3,950$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.2545248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930d…1dd8backed Astros66c3,233$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.782347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Astros66c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Orioles34c2,242$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.721,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Astros67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3403253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Orioles62c1,990$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.8438444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Astros67c1,866$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25025454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles33c1,757$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.4343949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles34c1,566$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.342,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Astros67c1,493$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Orioles31c1,490$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.7731347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles35c1,347$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.992,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Astros10c1,101$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.545732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x991a…2411backed Astros67c855$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.854459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Orioles75c787.35$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.493,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles34c735$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.11,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Astros69c710$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.918837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked Orioles33c689.27$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.8116552.1%86 W · 79 L+12.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Orioles79c644.28$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2280680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Astros68c589.71$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40170946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Orioles34c588.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.241,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Orioles34c588.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.2463052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9375…1dbdbacked Astros67c538.67$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.9111257.1%64 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Astros70c536.81$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.0338455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Orioles32c522.48$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.2988549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Orioles34c510.98$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.3485047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Orioles33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33516349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Astros66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33030850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Astros68c429.98$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.391,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Astros68c400$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6992754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe299…9945backed Orioles55c363$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1632744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Astros68c350$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23823455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles32c350$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23883248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Orioles53c346.44$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.1232754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Astros66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles32c300$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e3…3464backed Astros67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004847.9%23 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Orioles34c295$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.740548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Astros11c294.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Astros69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde8c…6307backed Orioles34c286.76$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.265834.5%20 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles32c275$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18799951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Orioles55c270.34$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4460052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked Astros12c240$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.69246.7%43 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Astros67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1342,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Orioles33c199.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1342,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95de…42d5backed Orioles78c192.66$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.666960.9%42 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cbe…fce9backed Orioles34c176.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.475242.3%22 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Orioles33c151$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.171,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe782…e7d9backed Astros67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.512258.2%71 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb5…da2cbacked Astros67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012355.3%68 W · 55 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaade…71f1backed Astros69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002850%14 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Astros14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.696133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2d…e348backed Astros66c135$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.118159.1%107 W · 74 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Orioles34c123.53$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5331244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee4…b575backed Orioles33c121.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2151245.1%231 W · 281 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdd…742dbacked Astros14c116$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.246845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc655…8467backed Astros66c111$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2624351.4%125 W · 118 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a03…6368backed Astros23c110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbe1…4e47backed Astros69c106.96$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.82556%14 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Orioles34c102.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9457545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros14c101.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.259,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Astros69c101.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010255.9%57 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Astros67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6766645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Astros66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6618249.5%90 W · 92 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ae…f248backed Orioles32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+128%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7254…9293backed Astros69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9026…6924backed Orioles32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.73429.4%10 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Orioles33c99.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Astros69c86.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1f…b532backed Astros67c86.27$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.81428.6%4 W · 10 L-4.4wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-51.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Orioles56c85.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2373149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9c…4fccbacked Orioles34c78.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+125.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe496…db44backed Orioles32c78.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Orioles47c77.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9238751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Astros66c76.36$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.761,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa865…a199backed Orioles32c75.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Orioles76c72.72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4579740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed30…b257backed Orioles34c71.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8307…1cadbacked Astros67c67.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.548167.9%55 W · 26 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Orioles31c61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.091,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c0…aa0cbacked Astros66c60.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82e…c19cbacked Astros66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.63647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Astros66c57.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.754161%25 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef44…66afbacked Astros67c54.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6616472%118 W · 46 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6082…6ce2backed Orioles33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.518148.6%88 W · 93 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Astros67c49.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.081,29956.7%737 W · 562 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Orioles32c48.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9454441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7425…3226backed Astros68c40.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe563…0da8backed Orioles34c40.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2bb…f7e9backed Astros69c39.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.