Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfffd306f10d4d3529713f0dc376977262a0e66d5a11b74acca5f277bfcead06c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 181.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 129.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 120.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 119.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 109.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 49c | 108.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 104.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 49c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 92.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 51c | 88.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 74.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 53c | 67.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 65.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 62.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 61.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 59.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 48c | 47.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 48c | 46.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 44.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 34.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 34.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 54c | 33.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 51c | 31.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 25.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 49c | 24.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 54c | 23.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.