Premier League · resolved market
Will Germany win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00170a925d97ede2ef8ac1c2dc4bc176ee011482b35653c01ef354469d7c76d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 17c | 35,431$6,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,154.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 19c | 22,789$4,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,328.31 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 20c | 20,591$4,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,038.61 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 21c | 16,654$3,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,424.34 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…7036backed Yes | 80c | 12,619$10,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 19c | 11,467$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.76 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 19c | 3,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 20c | 2,895$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.11 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 79c | 2,499$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 18c | 2,357$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.78 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed No | 22c | 1,477$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…56e9backed Yes | 79c | 1,324$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…f603backed Yes | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…c0b8backed No | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked No | 19c | 947.26$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.98 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 80c | 714.44$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…7c74backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked No | 19c | 447.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Yes | 79c | 378.04$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc7…1897backed Yes | 80c | 292.12$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade0…dbacbacked Yes | 79c | 291.14$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 19c | 280$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 79c | 263$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…04ddbacked Yes | 80c | 250.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x432a…98ccbacked No | 21c | 236$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b9…30dbbacked Yes | 79c | 228.68$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…7351backed Yes | 79c | 220.71$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.3wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf9…fceebacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…a8e8backed Yes | 80c | 199.55$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 80c | 169.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…4d84backed Yes | 80c | 138.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…d9e5backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…9937backed Yes | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…7c06backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…c6b2backed Yes | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…113bbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…968dbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…442abacked Yes | 79c | 62.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 80c | 60.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…1d3cbacked Yes | 79c | 57.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 21c | 57.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6b…7b67backed Yes | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…027cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…f025backed Yes | 80c | 47.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…b195backed Yes | 79c | 38.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…3fc9backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…e85cbacked Yes | 80c | 34.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4053…5c78backed Yes | 80c | 28.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…0a9dbacked Yes | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…0116backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…f4abbacked Yes | 79c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…38a7backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49cd…7a1fbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…dceebacked Yes | 80c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…9cc9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…bb8abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…8ee3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…d0f5backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…cee8backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win?this page
- Will Hungary win?No won
- Will the match be a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.