Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0055c11d61f25aecb68592e6779a007006f6960f10b38d730b92239d3749c983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Global Esportsof Global Esports, VARREL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcda7…af42backed VARREL | 73c | 413.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…f856backed VARREL | 70c | 289.74$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.79 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Global Esports | 26c | 169.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…ecf5backed Global Esports | 32c | 115.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Global Esports | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 184 | 39.7%73 W · 111 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Global Esports | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 686 | 50.4%346 W · 340 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…c6e0backed Global Esports | 31c | 82.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Global Esports | 27c | 74.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…8da8backed VARREL | 70c | 71.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Global Esports | 30c | 53.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Global Esports | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Global Esports | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…a007backed VARREL | 69c | 28.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5)this page
- Valorant: VARREL vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific PlayoffsGlobal Esports won
- Valorant: VARREL vs Global Esports - Map 1 WinnerGlobal Esports won
- Valorant: VARREL vs Global Esports - Map 2 WinnerGlobal Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.