MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0066cdc1fdfb97045e4dceaece341965e3025a0656f70f8be3a5581b51d5354f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 4,345$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.56 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 46c | 2,001$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 1,617$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.43 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 821.15$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 748.61$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 691.84$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 65c | 617.65$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 500.72$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 398$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 337.47$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Over | 56c | 269.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 257.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 256.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 241.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 193.87$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 175.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 175$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 49c | 130.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Over | 43c | 125.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 34c | 118.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 53c | 88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 47c | 83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Over | 49c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 39.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 22.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.