MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8810a0b9788229ef5bad2ee1adb53855bf550729179a688424c6641e94f719d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 4,197$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.45 | 11,242 | 51.5%5,789 W · 5,453 L | +139.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 3,790$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.62 | 12,332 | 46.4%5,727 W · 6,605 L | -67.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Over | 54c | 919.18$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.88 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 26c | 546.65$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 1,021 | 25.2%257 W · 764 L | -68.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Under | 71c | 423.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Under | 34c | 409.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.02 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 64c | 378.24$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.07 | 2,418 | 48.6%1,174 W · 1,244 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 344.01$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.16 | 8,392 | 46.1%3,869 W · 4,523 L | +32.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 261$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 8,788 | 52.6%4,623 W · 4,165 L | +509.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 70c | 245.44$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 80c | 245$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1,076 | 58.4%628 W · 448 L | -21.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 35c | 210.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 3,797 | 45.8%1,739 W · 2,058 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 268 | 59.3%159 W · 109 L | +17.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 19c | 114.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 38c | 86.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6,316 | 48.2%3,047 W · 3,269 L | +180.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 40c | 71.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Over | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 65.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 5,225 | 54.5%2,850 W · 2,375 L | +226.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 62.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 11,805 | 52.8%6,238 W · 5,567 L | +218.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,320 | 52.5%1,218 W · 1,102 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,036 | 41.2%838 W · 1,198 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 44.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 9,947 | 46.4%4,619 W · 5,328 L | +38.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 42c | 42.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 38c | 36.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 589 | 54.5%321 W · 268 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 35c | 33.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 3,877 | 42.3%1,640 W · 2,237 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Over | 42c | 32.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 69c | 30.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…2e5bbacked Over | 65c | 28.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 27.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 8,557 | 47.8%4,088 W · 4,469 L | +73.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked Over | 42c | 26.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,144 | 57.7%2,393 W · 1,751 L | +70.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 42c | 23.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,475 | 51.2%1,780 W · 1,695 L | +106.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.