MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb480866a73017f9385cf3ade83e3025dacd1546f3ebe00602e50db84eb77937e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 4,643$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 4,335$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 57c | 4,000$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.06 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 3,683$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 56c | 2,495$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.86 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…2079backed Under | 60c | 2,099$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 2,008$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 43c | 2,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.99 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,137$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.28 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 44c | 1,050$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 841.47$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.67 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 57c | 810$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.3 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 43c | 735.9$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.44 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 397.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 235.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 57c | 218.31$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 76c | 208.27$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 58c | 193.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 107.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 40c | 100.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 45c | 97.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 24c | 81.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 62.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 60.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 26c | 58.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 51.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 76c | 46.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 56c | 28.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…7210backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 60c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.