MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa927154f1f973b5ffbda60e79a3b2e9fef73cfb2377a1880a12e2606d0fa954f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 69c | 11,534$7,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,577.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 6,572$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 5,501$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 52c | 1,066$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.1 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 69c | 1,045$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 759$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.42 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 554$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.88 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 537.48$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.84 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 517.98$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Yankees | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Tampa Bay Rays | 23c | 428.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 309.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 77c | 289.45$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 267.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 29c | 242.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed New York Yankees | 62c | 197.56$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 185.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed New York Yankees | 33c | 100.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked New York Yankees | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Yankees | 38c | 85.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed New York Yankees | 38c | 78.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 57.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 50.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 40.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 38.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees | 74c | 26.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed New York Yankees | 62c | 23.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 17.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked New York Yankees | 75c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed New York Yankees | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.