Tennis · resolved market

Qatar Open: Valentin Royer vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00695d2d8e1c07577166e4e1b927b814c3b1e96dd3a9baad131295b239cec049

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Royerof Royer, Herbert
Resolved: Feb 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $69,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Herbert	9c	12,800$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,119.61	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Herbert	0c	4,741$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Royer	67c	2,611$1,749 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$861.63	1,658	49.9%828 W · 830 L	+7.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Herbert	33c	2,588$854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.04	381	33.9%129 W · 252 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Herbert	1c	2,309$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	1,206	8%96 W · 1,110 L	+17.2wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+80.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Royer	63c	1,610$1,022 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$587.63	724	52.6%381 W · 343 L	+34.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Royer	68c	1,310$887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.03	92	64.1%59 W · 33 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Herbert	32c	1,133$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.56	930	55.8%519 W · 411 L	+23.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Herbert	33c	1,086$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.68	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Herbert	36c	906.1$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.67	261	31.4%82 W · 179 L	-10.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-24%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Herbert	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	166	48.8%81 W · 85 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Herbert	4c	830.45$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.34	813	49.1%399 W · 414 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Royer	64c	708.7$451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.64	761	40.6%309 W · 452 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Royer	64c	542.1$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.1	132	60.6%80 W · 52 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Herbert	24c	416.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	387	39.3%152 W · 235 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Herbert	33c	359.99$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.8	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Royer	64c	338.62$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.9	321	47%151 W · 170 L	+12.2wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Herbert	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	693	50.5%350 W · 343 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Royer	65c	329.72$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.4	162	42%68 W · 94 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Royer	63c	319.99$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.4	591	65.3%386 W · 205 L	-16.9wins	-0.03per pick	68cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Herbert	13c	270.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	1,410	38.4%542 W · 868 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Herbert	33c	260$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.4	1,008	46%464 W · 544 L	-19.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Herbert	33c	260$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.4	970	46.6%452 W · 518 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Herbert	37c	200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	990	44.8%444 W · 546 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Herbert	36c	197$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.92	1,414	41.1%581 W · 833 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Herbert	19c	183.03$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.78	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Royer	63c	173.06$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.03	781	52.8%412 W · 369 L	+21.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Herbert	35c	171.69$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.55	1,973	46.3%914 W · 1,059 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73ca…ff89backed Royer	64c	164.16$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.01	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	73cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Royer	65c	159.08$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.08	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Royer	64c	156.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	524	60.9%319 W · 205 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Herbert	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Royer	69c	145.73$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.73	733	50.9%373 W · 360 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf77…d66dbacked Herbert	37c	135.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Royer	66c	129$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.86	380	48.4%184 W · 196 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9da2…ed3abacked Herbert	34c	126.47$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	106	68.9%73 W · 33 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	66cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Herbert	37c	108.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ba3…1aafbacked Herbert	37c	100.01$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	-7.2wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Herbert	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	160	44.4%71 W · 89 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Herbert	33c	99.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Royer	63c	91.06$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.69	153	63.4%97 W · 56 L	+11.5wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Herbert	33c	90.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	398	50%199 W · 199 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f17…9ab3backed Royer	64c	78.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.13	86	66.3%57 W · 29 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Herbert	36c	74$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	1,028	33.6%345 W · 683 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Herbert	20c	67.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	491	43%211 W · 280 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Herbert	30c	67.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Royer	65c	65$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.75	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Royer	75c	64.31$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.76	88	48.9%43 W · 45 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Herbert	35c	62.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	1,768	43.2%764 W · 1,004 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc128…5b3abacked Royer	65c	61.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.92	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+5.6wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50f6…b8c6backed Herbert	24c	61.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	133	38.3%51 W · 82 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Herbert	29c	60.84$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Herbert	36c	60.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	530	58.1%308 W · 222 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b28…647fbacked Herbert	34c	57.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4471…1134backed Herbert	34c	57.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb404…9de2backed Herbert	33c	56.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0792…eb4cbacked Herbert	37c	54.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Royer	64c	52.93$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.93	825	60.5%499 W · 326 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Herbert	36c	50.56$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	3,901	50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L	-13.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Royer	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	188	68.6%129 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Herbert	35c	47.76$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	7,139	49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L	+109.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Royer	68c	44.16$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.16	2,561	63%1,613 W · 948 L	-10.2wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Royer	68c	44.12$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.12	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1c…0ab7backed Royer	80c	38.88$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…64eebacked Royer	67c	37.31$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.31	42	69%29 W · 13 L	+3.9wins	+0.09per pick	60cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf303…7ee6backed Royer	68c	36.75$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	130	66.9%87 W · 43 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c10…5796backed Royer	66c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	31	67.7%21 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Royer	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	580	67.8%393 W · 187 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74d…734cbacked Herbert	34c	30$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	284	62.3%177 W · 107 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Royer	63c	28.57$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.57	643	58.8%378 W · 265 L	+13.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b1…c5c4backed Royer	63c	27.24$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.08	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	67cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf7…e19cbacked Royer	68c	23.18$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.42	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4712…5bd6backed Royer	67c	22.39$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.39	144	75%108 W · 36 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	71cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb43…f6eabacked Royer	67c	21.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.26	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c6…7d81backed Royer	67c	21.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.16	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa963…df11backed Royer	67c	20.43$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.74	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…039bbacked Royer	67c	20.38$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.73	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fe…65acbacked Royer	67c	19.6$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.47	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5c…ae4ebacked Royer	67c	17.6$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.81	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa538…d3b0backed Royer	68c	17.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56d…34c2backed Royer	68c	16.02$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.13	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Royer	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	313	39.9%125 W · 188 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fc…0d90backed Royer	67c	15.26$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Qatar Open: Valentin Royer vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market