TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,692 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c830.58$614 inWon+$216.2412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over19c654.7$127 inLost-$127.368,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over20c560.67$112 inLost-$112.239,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Under64c500$319 inWon+$1814148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under50c234.57$117 inWon+$117.886,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over19c231.05$44 inLost-$44.418,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over53c189.56$101 inLost-$100.628,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb07e…2b92backed Over54c147.11$79 inLost-$79.336947.8%33 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over36c132.39$48 inLost-$47.7611,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over49c105.22$51 inLost-$51.061,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Over31c88.76$27 inLost-$27.14,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd350…151dbacked Under67c67.16$45 inWon+$22.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under42c62.31$26 inWon+$36.315,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under52c48.32$25 inWon+$23.43,46051.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L+107.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under57c44.59$25 inWon+$19.2876558%444 W · 321 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a1…32f2backed Under52c43$22 inWon+$20.7820745.9%95 W · 112 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Over58c39.55$23 inLost-$23.081,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Under77c38.75$30 inWon+$8.7644345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bc…3503backed Under80c34.53$28 inWon+$6.915757.9%33 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under51c29.92$15 inWon+$14.581,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Under80c24.86$20 inWon+$4.9719155.5%106 W · 85 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over58c22$13 inLost-$12.762,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over61c19.56$12 inLost-$11.932,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.