MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9318e4221ddcd5a2d41b921d0637ad2d55679261c9d9e40400496f5cbd32771a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 6,851$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.62 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 5,954$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 1,457$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.42 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 471.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.16 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Under | 53c | 243.43$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 232$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 221$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 205.78$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 195.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…1d45backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 179.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 126.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 13c | 126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 115.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…7b22backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 104.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 49c | 98.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 56c | 89.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 51c | 47.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 43.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 42.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 162 | 58%94 W · 68 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 78c | 38.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 52c | 37.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 52c | 33.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.