MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc524cbf228998ec60e5b516355458b9bbccf9b17c8111a54186b95a44f8c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 7,044$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,952.45 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 6,203$3,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,490.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 1,635$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.74 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 1,593$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.83 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 1,129$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 1,037$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.89 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 607.76$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.19 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 292.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 224.16$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 184.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 174$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 106$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 89.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 81.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 75.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 69.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 63.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 59.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 55.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 54.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 54.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 52.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 50.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 50.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…16debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 36.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 30.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 30.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 21.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.