MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b11e9f9be3ff648e91dbb7ee42e97423ec6f60899a13294adfbf50c7e2d6049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 1,038$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 787.21$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 45c | 559.9$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.96 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 432.55$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.65 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 361.58$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 321.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.11 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 277.7$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Under | 44c | 210$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 56c | 177.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 48c | 170.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 22c | 138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 118$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 81.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa129…0838backed Under | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 69.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 47c | 56.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 55.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 56c | 53.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 48c | 49.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 44c | 42.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…ddc7backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Under | 48c | 33.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Under | 48c | 32.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…e41bbacked Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 47c | 25.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…05b5backed Under | 48c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Under | 48c | 22.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.