Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x009c813de3b88cf62936313d533b4f1c789f9e79c47b0bfa580d8af140e72550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 4c | 312.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 278.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 225.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 219.75$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 202.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 42c | 198.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 177.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 22c | 147.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 144.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 25c | 137.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…6f2cbacked Yes | 27c | 137.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 18c | 136.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 22c | 131.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed No | 76c | 117.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 110.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 104.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…0694backed Yes | 24c | 91.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 17c | 89.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 80.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 77.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 29c | 65.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 63.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 23c | 63.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 60.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 28c | 59.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 55.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 54.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 54.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 44c | 54.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 34c | 52.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 33c | 48.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 47.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 46.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 44.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 35c | 34.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 45c | 31.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 31.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 44c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 58c | 17.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 16.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.