TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5169…0455backed Yes48c1,553$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes39c1,087$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.041,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c698.52$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.672,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes17c526$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4247866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c455.25$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c370.91$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.878,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c353.17$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.058,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes47c328.79$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4981558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes39c293.77$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.761,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c203.24$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.594,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x398c…c935backed No54c201.14$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6221735%76 W · 141 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes42c196.94$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9714646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes36c194$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7072125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No61c168$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No62c162.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4818347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No55c158.72$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes27c155.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2284124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c152.76$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.364,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes46c138.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No54c127.11$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.472,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No59c118$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.352,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No62c116.84$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No68c110.11$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.31,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No54c110$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.672466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c107.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.094,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes48c100.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4828946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes47c99.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.742,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No57c99.63$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.562,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23e8…9373backed No59c97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.885675%42 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed No55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9119551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c87.43$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.163,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes43c84.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3659144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes45c84.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.882,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked No60c82.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1729469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc038…1becbacked No56c77.23$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No60c75.59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9121370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c73.21$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.464,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c70.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.879,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No58c69.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.051,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa48c…5506backed Yes47c67.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.472218.2%4 W · 18 L-6.7wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-57%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5712…8021backed No61c65.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No61c64.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2568867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No68c56.21$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2124164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes21c52.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.982,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.516946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.515545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f15…09d2backed No61c49.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes54c49.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.485133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No54c48.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1524141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed Yes33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No77c45.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4338860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes25c44.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.132,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No56c42.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9935264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes40c41.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.672,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No67c40.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2929281.5%238 W · 54 L+27.9wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes47c39.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.848523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes38c38.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.872,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes44c37.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.425,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes53c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6146148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e8…2e62backed No52c37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.764971.4%35 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes44c32.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.481,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e5…c577backed No64c32.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.832937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed No60c32.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.959176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes53c31.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.571,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes47c29.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1419559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42aa…7d26backed Yes47c29.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148246.3%38 W · 44 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes40c28.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No60c27.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.951,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c25.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.614,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes45c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.831,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e3e…c58bbacked No68c23.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.475064%32 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No62c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7827754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6cd…eaecbacked No77c22.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3914660.3%88 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No66c22.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.771,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04c…a1aebacked No61c21.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed No66c21.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2425261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.826067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No61c19.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.791,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No76c18.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3219260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No68c18.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8280962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No72c15.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.341,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x965b…e530backed No78c13.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35770.2%40 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.