Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00a303a8d080b3945bf2d46669c83ad77b5de8712bd0897fa3e09f68926fbb66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 688.36$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 529.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.24 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 455.85$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 452.77$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 310.76$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.76 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 298.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 258.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 247.29$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 229.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 182$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 179.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 74c | 176.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 33c | 151.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 31c | 147.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 72c | 125.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 110.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 95.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 30c | 91.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 81.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 70.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 32c | 65.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 62.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 64c | 60.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 25c | 48.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 26c | 47.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 47.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 44.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 34.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 33.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 80c | 32.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 29.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 29.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 68c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 45°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 46°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.