Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00b18b53807e09fcc79cdee760934a50d92caf08485b9c4b2990efbfc1ce4ae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ccf…7d58backed Yes | 2c | 5,685$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 54c | 1,174$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.97 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 250.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 236.1$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 185.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 50c | 166.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 54c | 164.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 157.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 57c | 153.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 143.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 132.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 125.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 123.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 123.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 16c | 117.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…00c1backed Yes | 42c | 115.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 106.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 101.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…81e5backed No | 64c | 100.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 80c | 83.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 63c | 79.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 43c | 68.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 65.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…a1aabacked Yes | 48c | 62.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 30c | 58.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 46c | 57.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 44c | 56.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 49.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 35c | 45.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 40.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 37.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 36.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…dab7backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 34.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 28.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 52c | 28.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 28.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 54c | 27.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 26.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 24.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 62c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 57c | 20.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…64ffbacked No | 62c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 64c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.